StatSystems Sports NBA & NCAAB Report, Monday 2/28/11 cont.
*** #707 BOSTON (-4, O/U 191) @ #708 UTAH ***
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The Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz were involved in two of the more surprising trades prior to last week's deadline. While the Celtics are still likely in position to contend for a championship despite the trade of one of the league's top interior defenders, the Jazz appear prepared to rebuild following the departure of their two-time All-Star point guard. After practicing with its two newest players for the first time, Boston looks to send Utah to a seventh loss in eight games when they meet Monday night in Salt Lake City. The Celtics (42-15) were stunned by the deal that sent Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic early Thursday, and responded with an 89-75 loss to Denver later that night.
Boston managed to put the trade and lackluster performance behind it, and bounced back with Green and Krstic in the lineup in a 99-92 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. The victory was the fourth in five games for the Atlantic Division leader. Krstic started at center and had nine points and six rebounds all offensive boards, a Celtics season high in 21 minutes, while Green had seven points in 18 minutes off the bench. "It was great for their first day, because we really didn't have a lot of stuff for them," said forward Paul Pierce, who scored a team-high 24 points.
"It's hard, because we only had a shootaround to prepare, so it's going to take time... but the good thing about it is that we have 25 games left, and hopefully that's enough time to implement them into what we're trying to do, and (it) wasn't a bad start." Doc Rivers liked what he saw from the two newest Celtics, but is still uncertain how to play Green, the Thunder's third-leading scorer at 15.2 points. Green, who matched a season low with five shot attempts Saturday, totaled 37 points and shot 13 of 23 in two games against the Jazz this season. "I'm going to have to figure out how to use Jeff," Rivers said. "I have no idea yet and that's going to take some time."
It will also likely take time for the Jazz to figure out how to move forward following the trade of Deron Williams to New Jersey on Wednesday. Devin Harris and Derrick Favors, both acquired in the deal, combined for 27 points in a 120-116 loss to Detroit on Saturday, Utah's sixth defeat in seven games. The Jazz (32-28) have been spiraling down the standings for a while, losing 15 of 20 to drop from third place in the Western Conference to ninth. "We are just looking for something good to happen so that we can start feeling good about ourselves," coach Tyrone Corbin said.
A matchup with Boston might not provide the best opportunity for Utah to break out of its funk. The Celtics beat the Jazz 110-86 on Jan. 21 in Boston, getting 21 points from Kevin Garnett and 20 from Pierce. No Utah player scored more than 12, and the starters combined for a season-low 38 points. Former Celtic Al Jefferson finished with seven points on 1-of-11 shooting, but he's in the midst of a scoring surge, averaging 27.0 points in his last five games, 9.2 better than his team-leading average.
--BOSTON is 11-0 against the 1rst half line (+11.0 Units) in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 50.3, OPPONENT 39.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.
The average score was BOSTON 101.5, OPPONENT 85.2 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 3.5; O/U 190
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -3.70
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more.
(46-10 since 1996.) (82.1%, +35.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -109
The average score in these games was: Team 100, Opponent 92.9 (Average point differential = +7.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3, +3.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4, +12.1 units).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(43-14 since 1996.) (75.4%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.8, Opponent 47 (Average first half point differential = +0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-7).
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*** #709 L.A. CLIPPERS @ #710 SACRAMENTO (-2, O/U 207) ***
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The Los Angeles Clippers will be without one of the key contributors to this season's three wins against the Sacramento Kings, but they may have some additional resources ready Monday night at Arco Arena. The Clippers, who could have new acquisitions Mo Williams and Jamario Moon available, look to sweep the season series against the Kings for the first time in 25 years. Los Angeles (21-39) is looking for its first win since the All-Star break after a brutal four-game stretch against playoff contenders. Following a 108-95 loss to the Lakers on Friday, the Clippers fell 99-92 to Boston on Saturday.
"It's tough playing back-to-back games, especially against the two teams that we just played," Blake Griffin said, who had 21 points and 11 rebounds Saturday, said. "We have good pieces. We've just got to get them out there all at the same time." Williams and Moon were not allowed to play while the Clippers finished paperwork after acquiring them from Cleveland for Baron Davis on Thursday. Meanwhile, Eric Gordon missed his 17th consecutive game with a wrist injury. Gordon's return could come in the next week, although he's been ruled out for Monday. However, Los Angeles is optimistic it will have Williams and Moon available.
Gordon's absence could be particularly felt against Sacramento. He's averaged 29.3 points in three wins over the Kings this season, but Griffin will try to help make up for it after averaging 20.7 points and 13.3 rebounds in the three meetings. The Clippers are looking to sweep the season series against the Kings (14-43) for the first time since going 5-0 against them in 1985-86. In the last meeting, Los Angeles held on for a 100-99 victory at Arco Arena on Dec. 27 after Sacramento's Tyreke Evans missed a potential game-winner at the buzzer. The Kings return home after a 2-5 road trip they ended with two straight losses. They fell 120-92 at Memphis on Saturday.
Beno Udrih scored 24 points on 10-of-13 shooting, but the rest of the team shot 38.9 percent. Sacramento, which played a sixth straight game without leading scorer Evans (foot), scored 43 points in the second half. "After the first quarter, we couldn't get anything going for us, it seemed like," coach Paul Westphal said. "We couldn't guard them at all, and offensively, we were turning the ball over, not executing well. "We looked like a tired, depleted team, which we are." Opponents averaged 114.6 points and shot 51.2 percent against the Kings during the road trip.
After being benched during the third quarter in a loss to Charlotte the night before, rookie DeMarcus Cousins came off the bench Saturday and scored 14 points, adding seven rebounds before fouling out. Westphal said the decision came because he feels Samuel Dalembert, who finished with seven points and eight rebounds, has played better than Cousins. "It's pretty much as simple as that," Westphal said. The Kings have lost five straight at home.
--SACRAMENTO is 38-12 UNDER (+24.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 48.3, OPPONENT 47.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--SACRAMENTO is 7-25 against the 1rst half line (-20.5 Units) when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 48.5, OPPONENT 54.2 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Sacramento by 1; O/U 203.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Sacramento -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Sacramento -0.55
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent.
(50-22 since 1996.) (69.4%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.5, Opponent 46.6 (Average first half point differential = +6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-11).
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*** #711 VILLANOVA @ #712 NOTRE DAME (-4, O/U 139) ***
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Coming off one of its best defensive performances of the season, Notre Dame can clinch a double-bye for the Big East tournament in its next game. The ninth-ranked Irish will try to do so as they look to go undefeated at home for the first time in three years in a matchup with slumping No. 15 Villanova on Monday night. Notre Dame (23-5, 12-4) has won nine of its last 10, all of which were Big East games. With a victory Monday, it would secure a double-bye in the conference tournament while staying in the thick of the race for the league title. "That double-bye is big for us," coach Mike Brey said. "It keeps us looking forward and not behind us. There is a lot going on back there and I've tried to talk to the team about chasing (first-place) Pittsburgh rather than looking back."
After completing a stretch of three straight on the road, the Irish improved to 16-0 at home with a 60-48 win over Seton Hall on Saturday. They shot 32 percent and had seven turnovers in the first half, but were only down three at the break. Notre Dame took control with a 13-0 run early in the second half and never trailed again. "We've been here before," said forward Carleton Scott, who played despite a sprained ankle and finished with eight points and 10 rebounds. "You have to just keep plugging away. You need to concentrate on defense and just take good shots."
Tim Abromaitis scored 22 points and Ben Hansbrough added 21 for Notre Dame, which outrebounded Seton Hall 41-32. The Pirates shot 30.4 percent as the Irish gave up their fewest points to a conference opponent in seven years. Notre Dame will look to keep up the defensive intensity in their final home game of the season. The last time they went unbeaten at home was in 2007-08. While the Irish appear to be peaking at the right time, Villanova (21-8, 9-7) is looking to bounce back from its fourth loss in six games, 81-68 to No. 23 St. John's on Saturday. The Red Storm jumped out to an 18-4 lead in the opening minutes. The Wildcats pulled to within one with four minutes remaining, but St. John's closed the game on a 16-4 run.
Corey Stokes scored 20 points and went 6 of 10 from 3-point range, but the rest of the team shot 34.1 percent overall. The Wildcats were coming off a 69-64 defeat to Syracuse last Monday in which they shot 32.3 percent. "I feel like we're getting a little better, but not good enough for this league," coach Jay Wright said. "I don't think we're getting worse." Wright's team, which has dropped three in a row to ranked opponents, will close the season at No. 4 Pittsburgh on Saturday.
Villanova has stumbled down the Big East standings after a strong start, just as it did last season. The Wildcats opened 2009-10 by winning 20 of 21 but lost five of their final nine regular-season games. Leading scorer Corey Fisher has struggled badly over the past two games, totaling 10 points and shooting 4 of 26. Fisher is averaging 15.5 points, but has been held to 12 or fewer in four of the last five contests. The Wildcats have won two straight over Notre Dame, the most recent a 90-72 home victory Jan. 27, 2010. Villanova won 77-60 on March 2, 2009 in the teams' last meeting in South Bend.
--VILLANOVA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1997.
The average score was VILLANOVA 67.5, OPPONENT 70.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--VILLANOVA is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VILLANOVA 30.4, OPPONENT 32.7 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Notre Dame by 4.5; O/U 141
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Notre Dame -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Notre Dame -4.88
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - A favorite (NOTRE DAME) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 55 points or less.
(59-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.0%, +33.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (69-14 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 8.3
The average score in these games was: Team 70.7, Opponent 59.8 (Average point differential = +10.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (33.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-13).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (106-61).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (VILLANOVA) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games.
(56-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +30.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.8, Opponent 32.4 (Average first half point differential = -0.6)
The situation's record this season is: (7-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (75-43).
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*** #713 KANSAS STATE @ #714 TEXAS (-9.5, O/U 135) ***
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Coach Rick Barnes isn't panicking after a second straight road loss dropped Texas into a first-place tie in the Big 12, but his team's defense could be giving him reason to worry. Barnes needs the fifth-ranked Longhorns to improve in that area quickly with Jacob Pullen and surging Kansas State coming to town Monday night. Texas (24-5, 12-2) lost for the second time in three games Saturday, 91-89 to Colorado. The Longhorns had beaten Iowa State three days earlier, but that followed a 70-67 loss at Nebraska on Feb. 19. Saturday's defeat left Texas tied with Kansas atop the Big 12 with two games remaining. The Longhorns will look to regroup at home, where they are 16-1 and suffered their only loss by one point in overtime to then-No. 8 Connecticut on Jan. 8.
"I'm not concerned about it," Barnes said. "If we are good enough, we're good enough. If we're not, we're not. We have done a good job until this point." Texas struggled defensively in its last two losses, allowing the Buffaloes to shoot 53.3 percent and blowing a 15-point second half lead as Colorado's Alec Burks finished with 33 points. The Cornhuskers made 47.1 percent from the field and outscored the Longhorns 44-34 in the second half. The main focus at the defensive end for Texas on Monday will be guard Jacob Pullen, tied with Burks for second in the Big 12 at 19.7 points per game.
"We have been a pretty darn good defensive team all year, but we have to finish play," Barnes said. "We know what we are capable of doing. We need more defensive rebounds and to do a better job on the offensive end." Jordan Hamilton's struggles there haven't helped. The conference's fourth-leading scorer at 18.8 points a game, Hamilton scored 21 on Saturday but shot 29.2 percent from the field and 5 of 13 from 3-point range. Hamilton, making 44.7 percent from the floor on the season, has shot 31.3 percent in the last four games, though he's averaged 18.5 points over that span.
The Longhorns are 7-0 at home in conference play, winning by an average of 17.1 points. They could have a tough time continuing that domination against Kansas State (20-9, 8-6), which has won four in a row and beaten two Top 25 teams in that stretch. Pullen scored 24 points to lead the Wildcats to an 80-70 victory over No. 20 Missouri on Saturday. Curtis Kelly added 15 for Kansas State, which pulled into a tie with Missouri for fourth place in the race for the final bye in the Big 12 tournament.
Pullen has averaged 29.0 points during the winning streak and shot 60 percent Saturday while making all four 3-pointers. He's gone 15 of 23 from beyond the arc over the last four contests. "He has never shied away from the responsibility of being a good player," said coach Frank Martin, whose team has won six of seven. While the Wildcats have played well recently, they are 4-5 on the road and have dropped three straight to ranked opponents. Kansas State is shooting 39.2 percent away from Manhattan, compared to 46.0 percent at home. The Wildcats, though won the last two road matchups with Texas, taking the most recent one 85-81 in overtime Jan. 31, 2009.
--TEXAS is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts this season.
The average score was TEXAS 69.9, OPPONENT 57.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--KANSAS ST is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS ST 40.5, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Texas by 11; O/U 135.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Texas -9
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Texas -11.26
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - A favorite (TEXAS) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games.
(29-9 since 1997.) (76.3%, +19.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-24)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average score in these games was: Team 67.8, Opponent 70.6 (Average point differential = -2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (38.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
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*** #715 NORTHERN COLORADO ( -6.5, O/U NA) @ #716 IDAHO STATE ***
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Now with sole possession of first place in the Big Sky, the Northern Colorado Bears will try to remain in the league's top spot when they battle the Idaho State Bengals at Holt Arena. The Bears took care of business last night, as they defeated Northern Arizona, 72-71. However, what helped Northern Colorado jump into first place was Montana's shocking loss to Eastern Washington in overtime. Now all the Bears have to do is win tonight and against Sacramento State in their final two games, and they will be crowned Big Sky regular season champs.
As for the Bengals, they are pulling up near the rear of the standings, as the team comes into this matchup with a 4-10 league mark. Idaho State has dropped five of its last seven league matchups and the team is coming off an embarrassing, 63-39 setback to Weber State. The Bears defeated Idaho State, 57-37, earlier this year for their fifth win in the last seven meetings between the two programs. However, even with Northern Colorado's recent success, the Bengals still own a 30-16 edge in the all-time series. Throughout the season the Bears have been solid offensively, averaging 71.8 ppg, which ranks the team fourth in the Big Sky Conference.
However, over the team's last five victories the Bears have improved their play drastically, producing 82.4 ppg during that time frame. The Bears finished with 72 points in their win over Northern Arizona on Saturday, but while the team was victorious, Northern Colorado certainly was not overwhelming offensively, as the team shot under 40.0 percent in the contest. Devon Beitzel, who is leading the team with 20.4 ppg, paced the squad in the win with 23 points, while Neal Kingman (10.7 ppg) and Chris Kaba tallied 17 and 12 points, respectively.
Besides Sacramento State there is no team in the conference worse than the Bengals in terms of offensive production, as the team rolls into this matchup averaging just 64.3 ppg. Idaho State hit a new low in its most recent contest, as the Bengals were held to just 39 points in a loss to Weber State. Idaho State shot an embarrassing, 21.7 percent in the matchup and made only two of its 15 three-point attempts. The Bengals also committed 16 turnovers, which turned into 21 points for Weber State. Broderick Gilchrest connected on just 3-of-14 attempts in the contest, but finished with 11 points, as did Kenny McGowen, who made just two of his eight shots.
Gilchrest, who is leading the team with 14.3 ppg, was not the only player to struggle, as Deividas Busma also had a tough time, netting just one of his five shots, finishing the game with two points. However, Busma is still averaging 11.9 ppg on the year. Finally, the Bears are in the driver's seat in terms of the regular season title however, they need to remember that Montana lost a huge game on the road against an inferior team just a few days ago. Look for Northern Colorado to avoid the same mistake the Grizzlies made, as the Bears inch closer to a league title.
--IDAHO ST is 8-24 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was IDAHO ST 29.7, OPPONENT 37.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--IDAHO ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.
The average score was IDAHO ST 69.8, OPPONENT 84.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - N Colorado by 6.5; O/U 136.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - N Colorado -7
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - N Colorado -7.44
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (IDAHO ST) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival.
(88-19 since 1997.) (82.2%, +48.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -208.7
The average score in these games was: Team 73, Opponent 65.1 (Average point differential = +8)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +0.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-8, +1.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-9, +10.5 units).
:money8:
